Explainer: What does strategic Darfur city's fall mean for Sudan's deadly civil war

CAIRO, Oct. 30 (Xinhua) -- The capital of Sudan's North Darfur State, El Fasher, has fallen to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) following the withdrawal of the national army -- a major turning point in the country's two-and-a-half-year civil war that has intensified fears of a worsening humanitarian catastrophe.

The fall of the city, the last government stronghold in western Sudan, consolidates the militias' control across the Darfur region -- a vast, resource-rich area that has long been at the heart of Sudan's conflicts.

The development has heightened global concern over Sudan's already severe humanitarian situation, amid reports of widespread civilian killings following the city's capture. Sudanese authorities claim at least 2,000 people have been killed since El Fasher fell to the RSF.

CIVIL WAR AND SIEGE OF EL FASHER

Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF erupted in April 2023, following months of escalating tensions between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army chief and head of Sudan's ruling council, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the RSF commander and al-Burhan's former deputy.

The two men were once allies in the 2019 uprising that ousted former president Omar al-Bashir. But their uneasy partnership later broke down over disputes regarding the integration of their forces and the division of political power, throwing the country into turmoil.

After more than two years of war, the SAF remains entrenched in eastern, northern and central Sudan, while the RSF controls most of the west, including nearly all of Darfur and large parts of Kordofan, about 40 percent of the country's territory.

Darfur has long been the RSF's base of power. By mid-2023, the group had seized four of the region's five state capitals, leaving only El Fasher under army control. The city endured an 18-month siege before the army's final withdrawal this week.

Al-Burhan said the pullout was intended to protect civilians and prevent further destruction, vowing to "recapture the lost land."

STRATEGIC, SYMBOLIC LOSS

With the fall of El Fasher, the RSF now holds all five state capitals in Darfur -- a region roughly the size of Spain, rich in oil, gold and other minerals, and serving as a key transport corridor linking Sudan to its western neighbors.

In July, the RSF declared a "parallel government" in Darfur, a move condemned by Sudan's central authorities as illegal. Analysts say the group's consolidation of control in the west marks a decisive shift in the balance of power and strengthens its leverage in any future ceasefire talks.

"The RSF leadership doesn't appear content with just western Sudan," said Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group. "As long as they continue to receive supplies, they look prepared to expand the war eastward."

WORSENING HUMANITARIAN CALAMITY

More than 30,000 people have been killed since fighting broke out in 2023, according to UN estimates, though independent monitors suggest the actual toll is likely far higher. Verification of casualties has become increasingly difficult amid the collapse of Sudan's health system.

A British study released in 2024 estimated that at least 61,000 people had died in Khartoum State alone, underscoring the scale of devastation that exceeds official counts.

In El Fasher, civilians endured months of intense bombardment during a siege. Sudanese officials said on Wednesday that more than 2,000 civilians have been killed by RSF forces since they seized control of the city. Power and water systems have collapsed, and hospitals have been looted or destroyed.

"Hundreds of thousands of people are trapped, terrified, shelled, starving, and without access to food, healthcare, or safety," said Tom Fletcher, the UN emergency relief coordinator. "We have lifesaving supplies ready, but intensified attacks have made it impossible for us to get aid in."

The United Nations now describes Sudan as being at the center of one of the world's "most severe" humanitarian crises. Over 30 million people need urgent assistance, including 9.6 million displaced from their homes and nearly 15 million children struggling to survive.

"This is one of the worst protection crises we've seen in decades," said Kelly Clements, the UN deputy high commissioner for refugees.

Analysts warn that Sudan's war, now entering its third year, risks further fragmenting the country while drawing scant global attention. Overshadowed by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Sudan's conflict has largely faded from international headlines -- even as millions face famine and displacement. ■